According to a new Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey released exclusively to The Hill, former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris in hypothetical 2024 match-ups.
The survey, conducted on February 15-16 among 1,838 registered voters, found that 46 percent of respondents would vote for Trump over Biden if the 2024 election were held today, while 41 percent would support the president. The remaining 13 percent were unsure or did not know.
In a hypothetical race between Trump and Harris, 49 percent of respondents said they would vote for Trump, while 39 percent would vote for Harris. Thirteen percent were unsure or did not know.
The poll also found that Trump continues to be the strong favorite among a competitive Republican field. In an eight-way primary, 37 percent of respondents would vote for Trump, while 19 percent would back Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (not declared), whose support has dropped from previous polls.
Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, the second notable Republican to officially launch a presidential bid and the first to challenge Trump, received only 7 percent support in the hypothetical primary, but gained some momentum after a successful presidential campaign announcement this week, rising to third place in a potential GOP primary that does not feature Trump. Numbers are predicted to drop after CPAC when Haley had a negative response to the crowd, mostly MAGA supporters.
The poll indicates that the Republican presidential primary is expected to be crowded, splitting the party but ultimately bringing it back together around Trump as before since he is the most likely candidate. Democrats are coalescing around a Biden reelection campaign, with intraparty talks about replacing the president in 2024 cooling down.
Biden's approval rating remained unchanged at 42 percent, where it has hovered for most of his presidency, after his State of the Union address. The poll found that voters were split 50-50 on whether they found the speech favorable.
The Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey is a collaboration of the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and the Harris Poll. It is an online sample drawn from the Harris Panel and weighted to reflect known demographics, but as a representative online sample, it does not report a probability confidence interval.
Overall, the poll suggests that Trump's popularity among Republican voters remains strong.
Based on most polls, this election could easily be won by Donald Trump. The victory would be tied to the following five areas.
Consolidation of the Republican Party: Trump's continued popularity within the Republican Party could lead to a consolidation of support behind his candidacy, with GOP leaders and elected officials lining up behind him. This would make it difficult for any challengers to gain traction and could provide a unified front against the Democratic nominee.
Voter turnout: Trump was able to mobilize a large base of supporters in both 2016 and 2020, and if he were to run again in 2024, he could potentially motivate those same voters to turn out in large numbers once again. Additionally, if the Democratic nominee fails to excite their base, it could result in lower voter turnout and give Trump an advantage.
Economic recovery: If the economy continues to recover from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, it could provide a boost to Trump's candidacy, as he would likely take credit for any positive economic trends. Additionally, if he is able to maintain his "America First" platform, which focuses on protecting American jobs and industry, it could resonate with voters who are concerned about the impact of globalization on American workers.
Democrat infighting: If the Democratic Party is divided between progressive and moderate wings, it could provide an opening for Trump to win the election. In this scenario, if the progressive wing of the party is able to secure the nomination, it could alienate moderate and independent voters, who may be more likely to vote for Trump.
Incumbency advantage: If Joe Biden is the incumbent in 2024, Trump could use his experience as a former president to his advantage, arguing that he is better equipped to lead the country. Additionally, incumbents typically have a fundraising advantage and can use the powers of the presidency to their advantage in the campaign.
It's important to remember that these are just hypothetical scenarios and there are many other factors that could influence the outcome of the 2024 presidential race. Ultimately, the election will come down to who can win the most support from American voters.
There have been reports that China has sent military aid and equipment to Russia to support the country's ongoing conflict in Ukraine. According to Russian media, the Chinese government has sent multiple shipments of military hardware to Russia, including artillery systems, drones, and other weapons. This move by China is seen as a significant show of support for Russia and a further indication of the growing cooperation between the two nations. The conflict in Ukraine has been ongoing since 2014, with Russia annexing Crimea and supporting separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine. The conflict has escalated in recent months, with Russia reportedly amassing troops near the Ukrainian border. China's decision to support Russia in this conflict has raised concerns among some Western nations, as it suggests that China and Russia are increasingly aligned in their foreign policy objectives. Both countries have had strained relations with the West in recent years, with Russia facing sanctions over its actions in Ukraine and China facing criticism over its treatment of Uighur Muslims and its territorial claims in the South China Sea. The Chinese government has not confirmed the reports of military aid to Russia, but Chinese officials have emphasized their close ties with Russia and their shared commitment to maintaining stability in the region. China and Russia have been strengthening their military and economic ties in recent years, with both countries seeking to counterbalance the influence of the United States and other Western powers. As Russia's so-called "special military operation" enters its second year of full-blown war in Ukraine, former President Donald Trump takes President Joe Biden to task for leading the U.S. "into oblivion" and potentially World War III. "This is the most dangerous time in the history of our country," Trump wrote Saturday morning in a Truth Social post. "World War III is looming, like never before, in the very dark and murky background. "'Leadership' is solely responsible for this unprecedented danger to the USA, and likewise, the world. HOPELESS JOE BIDEN IS LEADING US INTO OBLIVION!!!"Trump's remarks come as China has become more publicly present on the Russia-Ukraine War, including Xi Jinping potentially meeting with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy and back-and-forth with the Biden administration and China on supplying weapons to the front lines.While the conflict in Ukraine has largely been viewed as a regional issue, the involvement of China in supporting Russia could have broader implications for global security. The United States and other Western nations will likely continue to monitor the situation closely and seek to prevent any further escalation of the conflict. Former US President Donald Trump issued a warning on Tuesday that the policies of current US President Joe Biden on Ukraine may lead to World War III, just over a year into the US-fueled war in Ukraine. Trump wrote on his social media platform that Biden is pushing the US towards a potential global conflict with Ukraine, through actions that may not be intentional. In response to Biden's unannounced visit to Kiev on Monday to demonstrate US support for Ukraine, Trump stated that he will reach out to Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to help find a quick resolution to the crisis if re-elected. Biden announced during his visit a half-billion-dollar package of supplies to Ukraine, including artillery ammunition and anti-armor systems, as well as further sanctions against elites and companies evading Russia's war machine. French leaders have also expressed concern over NATO's strategy towards military assistance to Ukraine, warning of the potential for a global conflict. The leader of France's far-right Eurosceptic party, The Patriots, and the head of the largest opposition faction, Marine Le Pen, have both suggested that NATO's policies could lead to World War III. Additionally, former French presidential candidate Nicolas Dupont-Aignan advised Paris to halt its supplies for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky following his effort to ignite a third World War. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has raised concerns about the potential for a larger geopolitical conflict that could draw in major global powers, including China and Russia. Some have speculated that the Biden administration's stance towards Ukraine is pushing China and Russia to become closer allies and increasing the likelihood of a nuclear war.The situation in Ukraine has been tense since the 2014 annexation of Crimea by Russia. The Biden administration has taken a firm stance on Ukraine, calling for increased support for the country and pushing for its inclusion in NATO. This has raised concerns in Russia, which sees NATO expansion as a direct threat to its national security. China, too, has been watching the situation closely, as it seeks to expand its influence in the region.While tensions between the U.S. and Russia have been escalating in recent years, it is important to remember that the use of nuclear weapons would have catastrophic consequences for the entire world. It is essential that all nations work to reduce tensions and resolve conflicts through diplomacy and peaceful means.There are allegations that Hunter Biden received lucrative business deals and financial compensation in other areas of his work in Ukraine and China. Some have raised concerns about potential conflicts of interest given his father's position as Vice President of the United States at the time. However, no charges have been filed at this time.
Squad-linked committees transferred hundreds of thousands of dollars to firm run by anti-Israel activist, filings show" Michigan Representative Rashida Tlaib and a Squad-linked committee have transferred hundreds of thousands of dollars to a Florida-based firm owned by an anti-Israel activist. According to filings, the progressive entities have given almost $270,000 to Unbought Power LLC, which is owned by Rasha Mubarak, a political and community activist who has openly expressed anti-Israel views on social media.
Tlaib's campaign paid Unbought Power $179,000 for fundraising services in 2021 and 2022. At the same time, her leadership PAC, Rooted in Community Leadership, added $44,000 in payments. Mubarak, who also serves as treasurer of Tlaib's leadership PAC, according to its records, has received payments from the Squad Victory Fund, a joint fundraiser that supports the campaigns and leadership committees of Squad members, including Tlaib, Ilhan Omar, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Mubarak has been criticized for her comments on Israel and its policies. She has taken to Twitter several times to criticize what she calls the "state-sanctioned violence" of Israel. Her tweets include statements such as "This isn't a conflict—it's settler colonialism, it's ethnic cleansing, it's oppression, it's apartheid" and "Say it loud. Say it clear. Palestine will be FREE."
Tlaib is not the only Squad member to come under fire for controversial remarks deemed anti-Semitic. Omar has repeatedly been criticized for her comments on Israel. Last year, Florida Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz targeted Tlaib after she claimed that individuals couldn't be progressive if they supported Israel.
Tlaib's two committees and the Squad Victory Fund were the only federal entities to pay Mubarak's consulting company, according to a search of the FEC database. Neither Tlaib nor the Squad-linked committee has responded to a request for comment.
The payments to Unbought Power LLC have raised concerns about the use of funds for political purposes. Critics argue that the transfer of funds to a company owned by an anti-Israel activist indicates the promotion of biased opinions and goes against the principles of democracy.
In conclusion, the transfer of funds by Tlaib's committees and the Squad-linked committee to a firm owned by an anti-Israel activist has raised concerns about the use of funds for political purposes. The controversy highlights the need for transparency in political donations and the importance of avoiding biased opinions that go against the principles of democracy.
California Governor Gavin Newsom's plan to limit oil companies' profits was criticized by both Democrats and Republicans during a recent state hearing. The hearing was held to consider proposed legislation backed by Newsom, which would punish oil exploration and refining companies with a financial penalty if found to increase gasoline prices "excessively". Michael Mische, a professor at the University of Southern California Marshall School of Business, said, "Enacting SBX1-2 is not in the best interests of the consumer, will not reduce retail pump prices and is not in the best long-term economic interests of California". The bill was also criticized by Catherine Reheis-Boyd, the president and CEO of the Western States Petroleum Association. The governor responded by accusing the oil industry of using scare tactics and refusing to provide answers or solutions to last year's price spikes. The state of California has released plans to slash greenhouse gas emissions by 85%, cut oil usage by 94%, and deploy more solar and wind capacity over the next two decades. California has maintained its position as the state with the highest average gas prices throughout the past year, according to data from the Energy Information Administration. In both June and October, the average gas price surpassed $6 per gallon, and though the average has fallen to $4.76 per gallon in the last two months, it remains the highest in the nation except for Hawaii. California has also continued to impose restrictions on the oil and gas industry as part of its efforts to advance renewable energy production and combat climate change. Federal data reveals that petroleum refining capacity, crucial for the production of gasoline and jet fuel, has decreased by over 17% in the West Coast region, including California, since its peak in 2010. Meanwhile, domestic consumption of all fuel types has increased by around 5%. The head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, Patrick De Haan, claimed that California's strict regulations are the cause of the state's consistently high gas prices. He also contrasted the state's stance with Texas, where the oil industry is more welcome and regulatory burdens are lower, resulting in lower gas prices. De Haan dismissed the notion that oil companies are exploiting California consumers, stating that such claims lack substance. California is facing two major challenges: a massive state debt and a significant homeless population. The state has one of the largest economies in the world, but its debt burden is also one of the highest in the country. According to recent data from the State Treasurer's Office, California's outstanding debt currently stands at approximately $258 billion. This includes bonds, loans, and other forms of borrowing that the state has accumulated over the years. One of the reasons for the high level of debt is the state's heavy reliance on bonds to fund infrastructure projects, such as highways, bridges, and schools. While these investments can boost economic growth in the long run, they also come with significant interest payments that must be made over time, adding to the state's overall debt burden. Another major challenge facing California is its homelessness crisis. The state has the largest homeless population in the country, estimated at more than 160,000 individuals, according to the latest figures from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development. The reasons for this crisis are complex, but they include a lack of affordable housing, rising housing costs, and a shortage of mental health and substance abuse treatment services. To address these challenges, California has implemented a number of policy initiatives aimed at reducing debt and homelessness. For example, the state recently passed a $7.6 billion package to fund affordable housing and homeless services, including the construction of new housing units and the expansion of mental health and substance abuse treatment programs. Additionally, the state has taken steps to reduce its reliance on debt financing for infrastructure projects, including the use of more pay-as-you-go financing models that require upfront payments rather than long-term borrowing. It remains to be seen whether California will be able to fully address these complex issues and improve the lives of its residents in the years to come.